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Prediction for CME (2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-10-28T15:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18106/-1
CME Note: Significant CME SW in COR2A and full halo in C2/C3. Source: X1.0 class flare from AR 2887 at S26W4 peaking at 2021-10-28T15:35Z and an associated significant eruption (with a EUV wave) seen in AIA 193/171/304 and EUVI A 195/304 starting 2021-10-28T15:25Z. CME arrival marked by sudden increase in magnetic field and solar wind speed and density, with B total briefly reaching 13 nT. The flux rope is clearly seen on the next day.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-10-31T09:13Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-30T20:20Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-10-28 18:52
 . Time at C2: 2021-10-28 15:53
 . Radial speed: 1109.0 km/s
 . Half angle: 49 deg
 . Eruption location: S17W00
 Inferences:
   . No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   . In-situ shock speed: 738.70 km/s
   . Shock arrival time: 2021-10-30 20:20 (i.e. predicted transit time: 52.45 hours)

Kp: 6.0 - 7.0

Lead Time: 60.22 hour(s)
Difference: 12.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2021-10-28T21:00Z

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